NZD/USD could be setting up for some disappointment if RBNZ only hikes 25bps – ANZ

The kiwi has recovered into the mid-0.70s, but analysts at ANZ Bank can not help but ask; is the market setting itself up for some disappointment? It could well be.

A softer USD has played a bit part in the kiwi’s success

“Rates markets remain skittish and the data pushed the bellwether 2yr swap to a new high for the year, and that in turn, put the bid in behind the kiwi.”

“A softer USD has played a bit part in the NZD/USD’s success, and with an announcement on the Fed chair due any day now, market sentiment towards the US could change any time. Brainard is seen as dovish, and Powell obviously a ‘no change’.”

“Returning to local markets, with 36bps priced in for next week and 198bps priced in over the next 8 meetings, local markets could be setting themselves up for some real disappointment if we ‘only’ get a 25bps hike, as we expect.”

“Support 0.6860/0.6900/0.7000 – Resistance 0.7215/0.7310.”