Hong Kong: 2020 GDP forecast downgraded – Standard Chartered

Kelvin Lau, a Senior Economist at Standard Chartered Bank, downgrades the 2020 GDP forecast for Hong Kong. USD/ HKD is trading at 7.666. 

Key quotes

“We lower our 2020 GDP growth forecast for Hong Kong to -4.8% from -2.4%, a second downgrade since the coronavirus outbreak.”

“The local economy also needs time to work through higher bankruptcy and unemployment, not to mention the risk of returning social tensions. This supports a modest upgrade to our 2021 GDP growth forecast, to 3.5% from 2.3%, partly reflecting a lower 2020 base.”

“The rise in the unemployment rate has accelerated, up 0.3ppt to 3.7% in February, and is on track to reach our year-end 5.0% forecast one quarter early.”