UK election: Brexit, trade, fiscal options and GBP – ANZ

Brian Martin, Analyst at Australia and New Zealand Banking Group (ANZ) warns over getting overly bullish on GBP ahead of the Dec 12 UK election.

Key Quotes:

“Opinion polls point to a Conservative victory in this week’s election. But it is not a foregone conclusion by any means. We caution about getting overly bullish on GBP ahead of the vote.

The main parties are courting voters with higher spending. Labour’s radical vision for the economy could lead to a fundamental re-mapping of the private sector’s equilibrium, beyond anything Brexit could ever do.

If Johnson wins, the UK will leave the EU on 31 January. He aims to agree an EU trade deal next year. That is highly unlikely. An extension to transition or some temporary tariff-free trade arrangement would be more pragmatic.”