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17 Apr 2014
Potential for further GBP strength medium-term - Investec
FXStreet (Barcelona) - Jonathan Pryor, Corporate Treasury Analyst at Investec, sees the possibility of the GBP to keep the firm footing.
Key Quotes
"The major headline yesterday came on the UK’s unemployment release. The UK unemployment rate ticked under the 7.0% forward guidance threshold to 6.9%, meaning the Bank of England will now alter the focus of their policy stance towards eliminating spare capacity."
"To put this into perspective, when Governor Carney assumed the helm last July, the BoE forecasted the unemployment rate to dip below 7% around the start of 2016, although their latest forecasts from February envisaged unemployment at 6.9% in Q1. Unemployment is now closing in on the BoE’s medium term estimate of unemployment of between 6-6.5%, meaning that that measure of slack is closing, although the new forward guidance means the BoE is now considering a range of indicators not just the unemployment rate."
"Wage growth was also shown to have strengthened further in another positive sign that the economic recovery remains on track. GBPUSD shot up through 1.6800 and followed through overnight to print a four year high at 1.6837 and confirms the GBPUSD up-trend is still intact."
"GBPEUR traded up through 1.2150 back to levels seen in early March before ECB President Draghi disappointed the market with inaction at the monthly policy meeting. With the pound still on a charge, any easing of policy by the ECB next month could likely see GBPEUR print new highs on the year."
Key Quotes
"The major headline yesterday came on the UK’s unemployment release. The UK unemployment rate ticked under the 7.0% forward guidance threshold to 6.9%, meaning the Bank of England will now alter the focus of their policy stance towards eliminating spare capacity."
"To put this into perspective, when Governor Carney assumed the helm last July, the BoE forecasted the unemployment rate to dip below 7% around the start of 2016, although their latest forecasts from February envisaged unemployment at 6.9% in Q1. Unemployment is now closing in on the BoE’s medium term estimate of unemployment of between 6-6.5%, meaning that that measure of slack is closing, although the new forward guidance means the BoE is now considering a range of indicators not just the unemployment rate."
"Wage growth was also shown to have strengthened further in another positive sign that the economic recovery remains on track. GBPUSD shot up through 1.6800 and followed through overnight to print a four year high at 1.6837 and confirms the GBPUSD up-trend is still intact."
"GBPEUR traded up through 1.2150 back to levels seen in early March before ECB President Draghi disappointed the market with inaction at the monthly policy meeting. With the pound still on a charge, any easing of policy by the ECB next month could likely see GBPEUR print new highs on the year."