US: Expect a steady 210k gain in June nonfarm payroll employment - Nomura

Analysts at Nomura expect a steady 210k gain in US June nonfarm payroll employment, consistent with the solid acceleration in activity during Q2, with a 205k gain from the private sector and 5k from the government.

Key Quotes

“Labor market indicators including business surveys and initial jobless claims remain consistent with continued labor market strength. For average hourly earnings (AHE), we expect a trend-like 0.2% m-o-m increase as payback from an unusual increase in financial activity worker AHE offsets a positive calendar effect.”

“Finally, with the unemployment rate at a very low 3.8% (3.75%) in May, we believe it will decline further in June to 3.7%. Continuing jobless claims have fallen sharply over the inter-survey period, consistent with a steady flow of workers from unemployment to employment.”