AUD/USD is fighting to stay above 0.77 with retail sales, RBA rates in the barrel

• The Aussie has halted the recent slide, yet bullish drive remains low.
• Aussie retail sales data at 00:30 GMT will be a crucial focus for traders.

The AUD/USD pair is holding ground near yesterday's high point, but showing some signs of weakness as it tests lower into 0.7760.

The Aussie will see retail sales figures at 00:30 GMT today, to be followed by the Reserve Bank of Australia's (RBA) Interest Rate Decision at 03:30. However, with the RBA already expected to hold off on any rate increases well into next year, the critical focus today will be on January's sales figures for the retail sector. Australian GDP figures are also due early Wednesday at 00:30, and these will be the big mover, with analyst forecasts undercutting the RBA's hopeful >3.0% growth projections, with Westpac anticipating year-on-year growth near 2.5%.

The Aussie has been in a state of decline since late January, as middling growth figures and mixed data continues to force the RBA into a holding pattern over rate increases, and the Australian central bank is widely expected to hold off on rate increases well into 2019 as unsustainable levels of household debt, slack in real wage growth, and a lopsided housing market all continue to drag on expansionary activity in Australia.

AUD/USD Technicals

The Aussie continues to consolidate after being pushed near the 0.7700 major handle, and a decided lack of upward mobility is sapping correction potential from the AUD/USD pair; the H4 charts show a small bounce forming from 0.7725, but this likely has more to do with the USD getting shortchanged in Tuesday's trading. Current intraday support levels are at 0.7735 and 0.7712, with resistance mounting from  0.7773 and 0.7820.