US: Chicago PMI and consumer sentiment data awaited - Nomura

Research Team at Nomura, suggests that the market participants are keenly awaiting the release of release of Chicago PMI and University of Michigan consumer sentiment data from the today’s US session.

Key Quotes

“Chicago PMI: After registering two solid readings, this index fell over 4 points in August to 51.5, the lowest reading since May when it dipped under 50. Regional business surveys for September so far suggest that the weakness in business activity carried over into September. The Empire State Manufacturing index improved but remained in negative territory and the underlying details painted a weak picture on current activity. Although the headline index from the Philly Fed survey improved notably, other details such as the shipments index swung 16 points to -8.8, an important signal that currently activity regressed. Given the latest round of weak business data, we think that the Chicago PMI is likely to edge down to 50.9 in September from 51.5 in August.

University of Michigan consumer sentiment: The preliminary estimate of the consumer sentiment index in September was unchanged at 89.8. According to the report, better outlook for the national economy offset the less positive sentiment on income growth as well as buying plans. Economic conditions have, on balance, remained steady since the preliminary estimate. As such, consensus expects only a modest increase to 90.1 in the final reading in September.

On inflation expectations, the 5- to 10-year ahead measure was unchanged at 2.5% in September. Recent readings on longer-run inflation expectations (e.g., NY Fed consumer expectations survey) suggest they remain relatively stable.”