Brexit polls gave conflicting findings – RBC CM

Research Team at RBC Capital Markets, notes that the two overnight Brexit polls gave conflicting findings.

Key Quotes

“A Telegraph/ORB phone poll followed a similar pattern to others conducted late last week in signalling a swing to the ‘Remain’ side, showing it enjoying a 7-point lead (53% remain vs. 46% leave) amongst those who say they will vote. However, removing the voting intention filter shows ‘Remain’ with a lead of just 2-points (53% remain vs. 46% leave), the smallest lead ‘Remain’ has enjoyed since the Telegraph/ORB poll series began in March.

A parallel Times/YouGov poll shows ‘Leave’ on 44% with ‘Remain’ on 42% and 9% undecided suggesting a small swing back to ‘Leave’ since a similar YouGov poll conducted late last week and published Sunday showed ‘Remain’ on 44% and ‘Leave’ on 43%.

Sterling slipped back on foot of the polls, at one point down 0.2% before recovering in later trading. Almost all media outlets are carrying reports on an article in this morning’s Guardian newspaper by George Soros in which he writes that Sterling could fall by at least 15% and possibly more than 20% from its present level in the event of a Brexit.”