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21 Apr 2016
World trade up but not gaining traction yet - ING
Raoul Leering, head of international trade research at ING Bank explained that
after a contraction of world trade by 1.1% in January (initial figure: -0.4%), the volume of trade bounced back in February with a growth of 1.1% MoM.
Key Quotes:
"Today’s data release by The Netherlands Bureau of Policy Analysis (CPB) shows recovery has been driven by higher import demand from advanced economies.
Import demand from the US increased by 2% while demand from the euro area increased by a whopping 4.5%. The flip side is growth of emerging markets exports increased by 0.7% MoM compared to a decrease of 1.3% in January.
If we look at the CPB’s trade momentum indicator (which is less volatile, and the preferred world trade indicator) we have seen positive albeit small figures every month since July 2015. February 2016 is no exception at +0.6%, only marginally up from January (0.5%).
If we break down the global momentum figures we see, contrary to the development in the monthly figures, that emerging markets are still the main drivers behind trade growth, although at a decelerating pace. World imports (+0.8%) were primarily driven by emerging economies showing a 1.7% increase in February, while the momentum indicator of advanced economies imports lagged (+0.1%).
All in all, the first two months of this year the performance of trade is better than last year when the momentum figure of imports was declining, but the data don’t give a clear direction yet where world trade is going."
after a contraction of world trade by 1.1% in January (initial figure: -0.4%), the volume of trade bounced back in February with a growth of 1.1% MoM.
Key Quotes:
"Today’s data release by The Netherlands Bureau of Policy Analysis (CPB) shows recovery has been driven by higher import demand from advanced economies.
Import demand from the US increased by 2% while demand from the euro area increased by a whopping 4.5%. The flip side is growth of emerging markets exports increased by 0.7% MoM compared to a decrease of 1.3% in January.
If we look at the CPB’s trade momentum indicator (which is less volatile, and the preferred world trade indicator) we have seen positive albeit small figures every month since July 2015. February 2016 is no exception at +0.6%, only marginally up from January (0.5%).
If we break down the global momentum figures we see, contrary to the development in the monthly figures, that emerging markets are still the main drivers behind trade growth, although at a decelerating pace. World imports (+0.8%) were primarily driven by emerging economies showing a 1.7% increase in February, while the momentum indicator of advanced economies imports lagged (+0.1%).
All in all, the first two months of this year the performance of trade is better than last year when the momentum figure of imports was declining, but the data don’t give a clear direction yet where world trade is going."