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6 Nov 2015
US NFP Preview: What banks are expecting?
FXStreet (Delhi) - The following are the expectations for today's NFP data as provided by the economists at 12 major banks along with some thoughts on the US unemployment rate into the event as provided by the FX strategists at these banks. Surprisingly, all 12 banks see NFP to post strong number in October with unemployment rate set to fall further southwards.
Goldman Sachs: Based on better than expected labor market data this week, we have revised up our forecast for October nonfarm payroll growth to 190k from 175k previously. Our revised forecast is marginally above consensus expectations of 182k by about 0.1 standard deviation of a typical surprise. Labor market indicators were generally improved from September, although the manufacturing sector continued to disappoint. We forecast the unemployment rate to remain at 5.1% due to our expectation for a rebound in the labor force participation rate.
Societe Generale: The US employment this week will guide expectations about what the FOMC decides to do in December but the reaction will be telling too. Last month’s 142K increase was within one standard deviation of the recent average, which means it was not at all remarkable, but that didn’t prevent the market reacting violently. SG’s forecast are at the top end of the range for non-farm payrolls (+220K), and wage growth (+2.4% y/y) while a drop in the unemployment rate to 4.9% is also forecast.
Deutsche Bank: Consensus is currently at 185k with DB at 175k but it’s fair to say that the whisper number has edged up this week with slightly firmer US data. We haven't eradicated slow down fears enough to revel in another weak number but with this week's strength in the dollar and renewed weakness in Oil and EM post-Yellen's hawkishness, a strong number would risk reinforcing these themes.
RBS: Our trading desk economists are above the listed consensus, anticipating a 205K rise in October non-farm payrolls. Most other indicators of employment, including the ISM indices, the ADP employment report, and initial jobless claims, showed few signs of deterioration over the past few months despite the clear slowing in headline NFP gains in August and September relative to the prevailing trend. That is among the factors that leave our economists seeing risks to our already above-consensus stance on the upside.
ING: With the usual trepidation, given the lack of reliability of the high frequency labour indicators, we see some upwards risk to our forecast of a 160k payrolls gain (consensus +182k). Though even that ought to be enough to see labour force gains absorbed, and with the unemployment rate only 5.1% due to rounding up to three decimal places, we would see there being not only a good chance of a further decline to 5.0%, but possibly even 4.9% (consensus 5.0%) – depending on how volatile labour force participation figures are, and how the numbers of unemployed – which positively correlate with labour force participation, also react.
Nomura: In October, incoming data on labor markets have been mixed, and again are not suggestive of a rebound to an above-200k gain in payrolls. Although initial and continuing jobless claims data are at low levels, survey data have been on balance tilted to the downside in October. On balance, we forecast that private payrolls added a net new 155k workers (Consensus: 169k), with a 10k increase in government workers, implying that total nonfarm payrolls will gain 165k jobs in October (Consensus: 182k). We forecast that manufacturing payrolls declined by 10k (Consensus: -4k) in October, as the employment subindex in many regional manufacturing surveys remained negative in the month. With continuing jobless claims falling further in October, we expect the unemployment rate to fall by 0.1pp to 5.0% (Consensus: 5.0%).
Rabobank: Michael Every, Research Analyst at Rabobank, suggests that the market expectations are 185K, up from last month’s disappointing 142K, with unemployment expected to edge down to 5.0%, the lowest since 2008. It goes without saying the market will run screaming in one direction or another depending on how the headline figure in this volatile series pans out.
UOB: The NFP today (6 Nov) is likely to add a similar 182,000 jobs in October, higher from September’s lowly 142,000. With the positive payrolls, markets expect the US unemployment rate to edge lower to 5% (from 5.1% in Sep). As usual, if we get another surprisingly strong NFP (well above 250,000) or a marked improvement in unemployment
rate (to below 5%), this will reinforce expectations that the Fed will start to normalize interest rates in December 2015, leading to higher UST yields and a broadly stronger USD.
Danske Bank: The October employment report will be released today. Job growth slowed to just below 140,000 on average in September and August, which in our view is below the pace (>150,000) needed for the Fed to initiate the hiking cycle. We estimate that job growth increased to 170,000 in October and that the unemployment rate was steady.
TDS: TD’s forecast is for a rebound in the pace of employment growth to 193K from the disappointing 142K pace the month before. The market consensus is for a 185K gain. Despite the rebound in jobs growth, TD expects the UE rate to remain unchanged at 5.1% versus the market consensus for a decline to 5.0%.
MUFG: The data related to the labour market since the weaker than expected September print all point to a rebound in the pace of jobs growth from the disappointing August and September readings (136k and 142k respectively). The steady flow of positive jobs data is reflected by the fact that our own internal BTMU NFP model is giving us an estimate of 230k for today’s reading, which implies the strongest jobs gain since June. The unemployment rate is set to drop again and another decline in the U6 unemployment rate would take that measure into single digits for the first time since May 2008.
BNPP: Our forecast calls for a somewhat neutral result, with a 150,000 payroll increase unlikely to be decisive for the December meeting’s outlook. On balance, we think Fed expectations would wane a bit if our forecast was realized, and we remain wary of extending USD longs vs core currencies at this time.
Click here to get more insight of the US Nonfarm Payrolls Preview with view from our in house Chief Analyst Valeria Bednarik titled “Nonfarm Payrolls: Can it confirm a December rate hike?”
Goldman Sachs: Based on better than expected labor market data this week, we have revised up our forecast for October nonfarm payroll growth to 190k from 175k previously. Our revised forecast is marginally above consensus expectations of 182k by about 0.1 standard deviation of a typical surprise. Labor market indicators were generally improved from September, although the manufacturing sector continued to disappoint. We forecast the unemployment rate to remain at 5.1% due to our expectation for a rebound in the labor force participation rate.
Societe Generale: The US employment this week will guide expectations about what the FOMC decides to do in December but the reaction will be telling too. Last month’s 142K increase was within one standard deviation of the recent average, which means it was not at all remarkable, but that didn’t prevent the market reacting violently. SG’s forecast are at the top end of the range for non-farm payrolls (+220K), and wage growth (+2.4% y/y) while a drop in the unemployment rate to 4.9% is also forecast.
Deutsche Bank: Consensus is currently at 185k with DB at 175k but it’s fair to say that the whisper number has edged up this week with slightly firmer US data. We haven't eradicated slow down fears enough to revel in another weak number but with this week's strength in the dollar and renewed weakness in Oil and EM post-Yellen's hawkishness, a strong number would risk reinforcing these themes.
RBS: Our trading desk economists are above the listed consensus, anticipating a 205K rise in October non-farm payrolls. Most other indicators of employment, including the ISM indices, the ADP employment report, and initial jobless claims, showed few signs of deterioration over the past few months despite the clear slowing in headline NFP gains in August and September relative to the prevailing trend. That is among the factors that leave our economists seeing risks to our already above-consensus stance on the upside.
ING: With the usual trepidation, given the lack of reliability of the high frequency labour indicators, we see some upwards risk to our forecast of a 160k payrolls gain (consensus +182k). Though even that ought to be enough to see labour force gains absorbed, and with the unemployment rate only 5.1% due to rounding up to three decimal places, we would see there being not only a good chance of a further decline to 5.0%, but possibly even 4.9% (consensus 5.0%) – depending on how volatile labour force participation figures are, and how the numbers of unemployed – which positively correlate with labour force participation, also react.
Nomura: In October, incoming data on labor markets have been mixed, and again are not suggestive of a rebound to an above-200k gain in payrolls. Although initial and continuing jobless claims data are at low levels, survey data have been on balance tilted to the downside in October. On balance, we forecast that private payrolls added a net new 155k workers (Consensus: 169k), with a 10k increase in government workers, implying that total nonfarm payrolls will gain 165k jobs in October (Consensus: 182k). We forecast that manufacturing payrolls declined by 10k (Consensus: -4k) in October, as the employment subindex in many regional manufacturing surveys remained negative in the month. With continuing jobless claims falling further in October, we expect the unemployment rate to fall by 0.1pp to 5.0% (Consensus: 5.0%).
Rabobank: Michael Every, Research Analyst at Rabobank, suggests that the market expectations are 185K, up from last month’s disappointing 142K, with unemployment expected to edge down to 5.0%, the lowest since 2008. It goes without saying the market will run screaming in one direction or another depending on how the headline figure in this volatile series pans out.
UOB: The NFP today (6 Nov) is likely to add a similar 182,000 jobs in October, higher from September’s lowly 142,000. With the positive payrolls, markets expect the US unemployment rate to edge lower to 5% (from 5.1% in Sep). As usual, if we get another surprisingly strong NFP (well above 250,000) or a marked improvement in unemployment
rate (to below 5%), this will reinforce expectations that the Fed will start to normalize interest rates in December 2015, leading to higher UST yields and a broadly stronger USD.
Danske Bank: The October employment report will be released today. Job growth slowed to just below 140,000 on average in September and August, which in our view is below the pace (>150,000) needed for the Fed to initiate the hiking cycle. We estimate that job growth increased to 170,000 in October and that the unemployment rate was steady.
TDS: TD’s forecast is for a rebound in the pace of employment growth to 193K from the disappointing 142K pace the month before. The market consensus is for a 185K gain. Despite the rebound in jobs growth, TD expects the UE rate to remain unchanged at 5.1% versus the market consensus for a decline to 5.0%.
MUFG: The data related to the labour market since the weaker than expected September print all point to a rebound in the pace of jobs growth from the disappointing August and September readings (136k and 142k respectively). The steady flow of positive jobs data is reflected by the fact that our own internal BTMU NFP model is giving us an estimate of 230k for today’s reading, which implies the strongest jobs gain since June. The unemployment rate is set to drop again and another decline in the U6 unemployment rate would take that measure into single digits for the first time since May 2008.
BNPP: Our forecast calls for a somewhat neutral result, with a 150,000 payroll increase unlikely to be decisive for the December meeting’s outlook. On balance, we think Fed expectations would wane a bit if our forecast was realized, and we remain wary of extending USD longs vs core currencies at this time.
Click here to get more insight of the US Nonfarm Payrolls Preview with view from our in house Chief Analyst Valeria Bednarik titled “Nonfarm Payrolls: Can it confirm a December rate hike?”