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22 Jun 2015
AUD/USD to remain within range near term – Westpac
FXStreet (Edinburgh) - Strategist Robert Rennie at Westpac sees the AUD/USD rangebound in the near term, although breaking lower towards Q3.
Key Quotes
“Bottom line, we still see AUD lower later this year and fully expect to see a breakout to the downside as we move into Q3. To be sure, Greece looms large on the horizon, and increased volatility from Europe could certainly be a driver for a lower AUD. However, a Greek agreement could just as easily see a short term pop higher for the A$”.
“To us, though, it is the combination of a September Fed tightening AND weaker commodity prices that will eventually see the AUD down through the lower end of the current range”.
“Between now and then, we could see the AUD up to 0.79 and possibly 0.7950 level before we would describe the currency as extreme to fair value. That suggests we could be stuck with the current 0.7550 to 0.80 range for some time to come. We do expect the AUD to break sustainably lower, just not any time soon”.
Key Quotes
“Bottom line, we still see AUD lower later this year and fully expect to see a breakout to the downside as we move into Q3. To be sure, Greece looms large on the horizon, and increased volatility from Europe could certainly be a driver for a lower AUD. However, a Greek agreement could just as easily see a short term pop higher for the A$”.
“To us, though, it is the combination of a September Fed tightening AND weaker commodity prices that will eventually see the AUD down through the lower end of the current range”.
“Between now and then, we could see the AUD up to 0.79 and possibly 0.7950 level before we would describe the currency as extreme to fair value. That suggests we could be stuck with the current 0.7550 to 0.80 range for some time to come. We do expect the AUD to break sustainably lower, just not any time soon”.