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6 Jan 2015
UK business surveys point to 4Q slowdown – ING
FXStreet (Barcelona) - James Knightley, Senior Economist at ING, shares that the UK service sector purchasing managers’ index has replicated the disappointing performance of both the manufacturing and construction surveys.
Key Quotes
“The headline index has dropped to 55.8 in December from 58.6, which was below the 58.5 consensus prediction. When combined with the manufacturing and construction surveys, the composite index has fallen to 55.2 from 57.6, which was lower than the 57.4 figure anticipated by markets.”
“This is the weakest outcome since May 2013 with the survey compiler suggesting that this is consistent with 4Q GDP growth slowing to +0.5%QoQ from +0.7%QoQ in 3Q 14.”
“We are more optimistic though given the apparent strength of consumer spending in 4Q14 and wouldn’t be surprised to see GDP come in at a similar rate to the 3Q14 figure. Indeed, Bank of England data this morning suggested that demand for credit card lending in 4Q14 was at its highest since records began in 2Q07.”
Key Quotes
“The headline index has dropped to 55.8 in December from 58.6, which was below the 58.5 consensus prediction. When combined with the manufacturing and construction surveys, the composite index has fallen to 55.2 from 57.6, which was lower than the 57.4 figure anticipated by markets.”
“This is the weakest outcome since May 2013 with the survey compiler suggesting that this is consistent with 4Q GDP growth slowing to +0.5%QoQ from +0.7%QoQ in 3Q 14.”
“We are more optimistic though given the apparent strength of consumer spending in 4Q14 and wouldn’t be surprised to see GDP come in at a similar rate to the 3Q14 figure. Indeed, Bank of England data this morning suggested that demand for credit card lending in 4Q14 was at its highest since records began in 2Q07.”