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5 Jun 2013
Flash: AUD/USD forecast looks to lower, pending tier 1 US data – NAB
FXstreet.com (Barcelona) - The RBA has publicly retained its easing bias despite a fall in the exchange rate since the May rate cut that is the equivalent of at least another two 25-point cuts.
Even before the pop higher after US ISM, the AUD/USD was showing signs of stabilization in the 0.9600 area. According to the NAB Research Team, “We have a strong bias to revise our current forecasts lower, but the potentially binary outcomes of the remaining near term Tier 1 US data means our 1.00 end June forecast could yet prove prescient; so we hold back this week.”
With a long overdue and welcome correction in the exchange rate having occurred since the RBA’s somewhat unexpected May rate cut, the Board may well have decided at the outset of this week’s meeting that the short, modern derivation of the Hippocratic Oath (‘First, do no harm’) was the overriding imperative. In publicly retaining its easing bias, the RBA has at least ensured that its own words and actions will not be responsible for a significant retracement of recent AUD losses.
Even before the pop higher after US ISM, the AUD/USD was showing signs of stabilization in the 0.9600 area. According to the NAB Research Team, “We have a strong bias to revise our current forecasts lower, but the potentially binary outcomes of the remaining near term Tier 1 US data means our 1.00 end June forecast could yet prove prescient; so we hold back this week.”
With a long overdue and welcome correction in the exchange rate having occurred since the RBA’s somewhat unexpected May rate cut, the Board may well have decided at the outset of this week’s meeting that the short, modern derivation of the Hippocratic Oath (‘First, do no harm’) was the overriding imperative. In publicly retaining its easing bias, the RBA has at least ensured that its own words and actions will not be responsible for a significant retracement of recent AUD losses.