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10 Nov 2014
Leveraged funds increased overall net long USD - ANZ
FXStreet (Bali) - HuiYing Chan and Khoon Goh, ANZ Strategists, reviewed the futures positioning data for the week ending 4 Nov 2014, noting that leveraged funds increased their overall net long USD positioning.
Key Quotes
"Leveraged funds increased their overall net long USD positioning by USD1.8bn to reach multi-year highs at USD33.4bn in the week ending 4 November. While the increase in net USD positioning likely reflected the FOMC’s more upbeat tone on labour markets in their 29 October statement, currency positioning was also influenced by the BOJ’s surprise easing on 31 October."
"Net short positioning in JPY came in slightly below our expectations and increased by USD1.1bn to USD6.1bn. Given the extent of the reduction in net short JPY positioning prior to the BOJ announcement, and the sharp rally in USD/JPY (from 109.2 to 113.6 at the point of the CFTC cut-off date), we were expecting a much larger rise in yen shorts."
"While the rise in USD/JPY since the CFTC cut-off date suggests further rebuilding of yen short positions, overall positioning is not yet at extremes. This suggests there is still further upside in USD/JPY from here."
"Commodities currencies resumed net selling after a pause in the prior week. Net short positioning in commodity currencies increased by USD0.5bn to USD4.8bn. In particular, we saw net selling in AUD of USD0.3bn."
"Net selling in EUR continues for the 5th consecutive week, with net short positions increasing by USD0.2bn to USD20.3bn. The change in positioning was likely in anticipation of dovish comments by the ECB on 6 November."
"GBP too has seen five consecutive weeks of net selling as expectations of rate hikes continue to get pushed out. Net long positions in GBP declined by USD0.1bn to USD2.1bn."
"Notably, it is the only currency that is still registering a net long position. Should rate hike expectations get delayed further or even diminish, the GBP net long positons will fall, weighing on the sterling."
Key Quotes
"Leveraged funds increased their overall net long USD positioning by USD1.8bn to reach multi-year highs at USD33.4bn in the week ending 4 November. While the increase in net USD positioning likely reflected the FOMC’s more upbeat tone on labour markets in their 29 October statement, currency positioning was also influenced by the BOJ’s surprise easing on 31 October."
"Net short positioning in JPY came in slightly below our expectations and increased by USD1.1bn to USD6.1bn. Given the extent of the reduction in net short JPY positioning prior to the BOJ announcement, and the sharp rally in USD/JPY (from 109.2 to 113.6 at the point of the CFTC cut-off date), we were expecting a much larger rise in yen shorts."
"While the rise in USD/JPY since the CFTC cut-off date suggests further rebuilding of yen short positions, overall positioning is not yet at extremes. This suggests there is still further upside in USD/JPY from here."
"Commodities currencies resumed net selling after a pause in the prior week. Net short positioning in commodity currencies increased by USD0.5bn to USD4.8bn. In particular, we saw net selling in AUD of USD0.3bn."
"Net selling in EUR continues for the 5th consecutive week, with net short positions increasing by USD0.2bn to USD20.3bn. The change in positioning was likely in anticipation of dovish comments by the ECB on 6 November."
"GBP too has seen five consecutive weeks of net selling as expectations of rate hikes continue to get pushed out. Net long positions in GBP declined by USD0.1bn to USD2.1bn."
"Notably, it is the only currency that is still registering a net long position. Should rate hike expectations get delayed further or even diminish, the GBP net long positons will fall, weighing on the sterling."